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Greek General Index is moving upwards according to our wave count so
far. The banking sector has proven a drag to the entire market but the
General Index continues higher after having found support at the upward
sloping yellow channel line. There is however a drawback in this
specific wave count. The recent rise in prices from wave C at 758 is not
a clear impulsive wave. This overlapping pattern may unfold into an
impulsive wave, but until then bulls will have to be extra cautious. The
sequence of higher highs and higher lows should also play an important
role in an investors trading strategy. As mentioned earlier, the banking
sector has proven to be a very heavy burden to this index. All in all,
investors should keep in mind that after 5 waves up, a correction is
imminent. Trading when the market is in wave 5 should be accompanied
with strict stop loss orders in order to avoid unwanted 5th wave
failures (inability to make new high). In our case however, if the 5th
wave does not make a new high above 910,99, then our longer term view of
a trend change in Greece will be at stake.
As always, thank you for taking the time to catch up with my thinking.
Although prices opened higher yesterday, the rest of the session was not as bullish as many have expected. SPX
as shown in the chart at the left, still trades within the upward
sloping trend channel. Prices topped and reversed exactly at the
boundaries of the upper channel and may now be heading towards the lower
boundaries. The form of the rise, unfortunately for bulls, is
not a clear impulsive move. The unfolding waves have an overlapping form
but with higher highs and higher lows. The picture is clearer in DJIA.
has made a new high as expected by our previous analysis in order for
the 5 wave form from 12765 to be complete. If trend is bullish and our
count correct, then another larger degree 4th wave is expected as shown
in the chart on the right jand side. Bulls should start to worry if the
dotted trend line is broken downwards and if wave i is overlapped.
Having long positions is riskier at this level that a few weeks ago when
we first changed to bull again. The sharp decline in metals could be an
initial sign that shares could be next.
As always, thank you for taking the time to read my post.
AAPL has held support at 500$ level. A
double bottom could be forming at this level with potential for the
stock to start a new upward trend after having finished a correction
from 700$ to 500$. Although it is too early to call a longer term bottom
at 501$, lets take a look at the levels AAPL needs to break for upward
trend to resume.
level of resistance is found at 550$ and then at 594$. The form of the
rising prices will also play an important role if this rise is impulsive
or corrective. If you follow us on twitter, you would be informed at
late November when price candlesticks provided us with a bearish signal
of a doji pattern at the 594$ area. Prices have plummeted almost 100$ lower.
Now we observe the opposite of that situation. A doji might not have
appearred, but this double bottom could prove very bullish if prices
continue to rise impulsively. 501$ should be held at all costs for this
scenario to be confirmed.
As always, thank you for taking the time to read my new post. For more help don't hesitate to contact me.
Dow Jones has been moving impulsively upwards continuously making
higher highs and higher lows as seen in the 60m chart displayed below.
Our current wave count puts us in wave (iv) of iii. For this wave count
to hold, prices should not fall below 13062 as this is wave (i) top.
Instead prices should move higher to provide a new high above 13329 in
order for the 5 wave sequence from 12765 to be complete.
long as prices remain above the dotted upward trend line that connects
wave ii-(ii)-(iv), bulls will have the upper hand and trend will remain
upwards at least for the short term.
As always thank you for taking the time to read my thoughts.
Greetings to everyone and thank you for your wishes. After one week, I'm back online to discuss EURUSD today and what could be expected since I see a bullish pattern that is forming and that could be confirmed very soon.
EURUSD as mentioned in a previous post, was in an short term and intermediate term bullish trend. Support levels were 1,2950 and 1,2880. The break of the first support level pushed prices towards the second level where support was found. Prices now trade above 1.30 after having moved impulsively upwards (chart below). Looking at the bigger picture above, prices have broken the downward sloping trending blue line and back tested it at the 1,2660 low. From that point on prices moved impulsively towards 1,31 and now retesting the red resistance line. The chart above shows us that this red resistance line now at 1.3125 connects 3 tops. The break of this resistance could give us targets as high as 1.37. The chart below shows us the current most possible wave cound and its alternative. Trend remains up and prices should break 1,3125 resistance for our bullish scenario to continue to have more chances. A pull back towards 1.2950 could take place as a corrective wave ii of 3. If we are inside a bigger correction wave degree, prices could pull back correctively towards 1.2850. If prices push even lower we should be very carefull if the start of this impulse (1.2660) is breached. Then wave counts should be reconsidered.
Concluding, we are bullish specially if prices move above 1,3125 and pull backs towards 1.2950 could be bought with stops just below 1.29.
As always, thank you for taking the time to read my post.
I would like to inform you that for the next few days my blog will not have new posts because I became a father today. Thanks for your support and I promise my comeback will be connected with a wind of change for my blog visitors and followers.
Many blog followers have asked me to post my view on Gold so here it goes. We have been bullish on Gold since 1525-50 level and were expecting a new bullish upward wave to unfold. My belief is that gold is now at a corrective pattern that could complete near the 61,8% retracement or 1640$. Lets take things from the beginning. Gold has started its final 5th wave up were we note that wave E of the huge sideways triangle has ended. From that time prices have moved impulsively upwards towards 1800 were resistance was too strong for prices to overcome. Our count is that this wave was wave 1 of 5. We believe that wave 2 is under way with an initial dip at 1672(50% retracement). Prices have bounced upwards but with no clear impulsive pattern. 1705$ is important support level as prices have moved upwards from that bottom in a 3 wave pattern. If 1705 is breached, then we would confirm that this upward move is corrective and with final target 1640 were wave 2 could finally end.Overall longer term trend remains intact with targets much higher than 2200$/per ounce. Short term trend remains bullish as long as prices trade above 1705 and as long as resistance at 1752 is broken and prices unfold impulsively. Currently gold has 1718 short term support that could prove helpful for bulls to re energise. Short term resistance at 1734-44-53$. The form of the rise will be very important as this rise if not impulsive could be wave B of 2.
As always, thank you for taking the time to read my thoughts!!!