Monday, 24 December 2012

Happy Holidays!!!

Warm wishes for happy holidays to all and merry Christmas.

Will be waiting for you at my new website

Friday, 21 December 2012


Dear followers and visitors,

I'm very happy to announce the beginning of my new website.

 From now on you will find my analysis at the web address below:

My 'profitablerisktaking' blog is moving on the next level, in order to continue to provide free high quality analysis and help on day to day trading issues and opportunities. Increased demand for a service to help traders and provide more detailed analysis with premium content available only to members, has made me confident that offering my premium services will be profitable for both parties.

Feel free to visit my new website at and share any comments regarding our new look or share your opinion regarding the markets via e-mail. Some features may not be fully functional (comments, premium services) but the free analysis is there as always.....

Thank you for your continuous support,


Thursday, 20 December 2012

Greek General Index still inside 5th upward wave

The Greek General Index is moving upwards according to our wave count so far. The banking sector has proven a drag to the entire market but the General Index continues higher after having found support at the upward sloping yellow channel line. There is however a drawback in this specific wave count. The recent rise in prices from wave C at 758 is not a clear impulsive wave. This overlapping pattern may unfold into an impulsive wave, but until then bulls will have to be extra cautious. The sequence of higher highs and higher lows should also play an important role in an investors trading strategy. As mentioned earlier, the banking sector has proven to be a very heavy burden to this index. All in all, investors should keep in mind that after 5 waves up, a correction is imminent. Trading when the market is in wave 5 should be accompanied with strict stop loss orders in order to avoid unwanted 5th wave failures (inability to make new high). In our case however, if the 5th wave does not make a new high above 910,99, then our longer term view of a trend change in Greece will be at stake.
As always, thank you for taking the time to catch up with my thinking.

Short term bullish trend intact despite yesterday's correction

Although prices opened higher yesterday, the rest of the session was not as bullish as many have expected. SPX as shown in the chart at the left, still trades within the upward sloping trend channel. Prices topped and reversed exactly at the boundaries of the upper channel and may now be heading towards the lower boundaries. The form of the rise, unfortunately for bulls, is not a clear impulsive move. The unfolding waves have an overlapping form but with higher highs and higher lows. The picture is clearer in DJIA.

DJIA has made a new high as expected by our previous analysis in order for the 5 wave form from 12765 to be complete. If trend is bullish and our count correct, then another larger degree 4th wave is expected as shown in the chart on the right jand side. Bulls should start to worry if the dotted trend line is broken downwards and if wave i is overlapped. Having long positions is riskier at this level that a few weeks ago when we first changed to bull again. The sharp decline in metals could be an initial sign that shares could be next.

As always, thank you for taking the time to read my post.

Wednesday, 19 December 2012

Could the double bottom in APPLE prove bullish?

AAPL has held support at 500$ level. A double bottom could be forming at this level with potential for the stock to start a new upward trend after having finished a  correction from 700$ to 500$. Although it is too early to call a longer term bottom at 501$, lets take a look at the levels AAPL needs to break for upward trend to resume.

First level of resistance is found at 550$ and then at 594$. The form of the rising prices will also play an important role if this rise is impulsive or corrective.  If you follow us on twitter, you would be informed at late November when price candlesticks provided us with a bearish signal of a doji pattern at the 594$ area. Prices have plummeted almost 100$ lower. Now we observe the opposite of that situation. A doji might not have appearred, but this double bottom could prove very bullish if prices continue to rise impulsively. 501$ should be held at all costs for this scenario to be confirmed.

As always, thank you for taking the time to read my new post. For more help don't hesitate to contact me.

Tuesday, 18 December 2012

Dow Jones moves upwards in an impulsive form

Dow Jones has been moving impulsively upwards continuously making higher highs and higher lows as seen in the 60m chart displayed below. Our current wave count puts us in wave (iv) of iii. For this wave count to hold, prices should not fall below 13062 as this is wave (i) top. Instead prices should move higher to provide a new high above 13329 in order for the 5 wave sequence from 12765 to be complete.

As long as prices remain above the dotted upward trend line that connects wave ii-(ii)-(iv), bulls will have the upper hand and trend will remain upwards at least for the short term.

As always thank you for taking the time to read my thoughts.

Thursday, 13 December 2012

EURUSD is 1.37 feasible?

Greetings to everyone and thank you for your wishes. After one week, I'm back online to discuss EURUSD today and what could be expected since I see a bullish pattern that is forming and that could be confirmed very soon.

EURUSD as mentioned in a previous post, was in an short term and intermediate term bullish trend. Support levels were 1,2950 and 1,2880. The break of the first support level pushed prices towards the second level  where support was found. Prices now trade above 1.30 after having moved impulsively upwards (chart below). Looking at the bigger picture above, prices have broken the downward sloping trending blue line and back tested it at the 1,2660 low. From that  point on prices moved impulsively towards 1,31 and now retesting the red resistance line. The chart above shows us that this red resistance line now at 1.3125 connects 3 tops. The break of this resistance could give us targets as high as 1.37. The chart below shows us the current most possible wave cound and its alternative. Trend remains up and prices should break 1,3125 resistance for our bullish scenario to continue to have more chances. A pull back towards 1.2950 could take place as a corrective wave ii of 3. If we are inside a bigger correction wave degree, prices could pull back correctively towards 1.2850. If prices push even lower we should be very carefull if the start of this impulse (1.2660) is breached. Then wave counts should be reconsidered.

Concluding, we are bullish specially if prices move above 1,3125 and pull backs towards 1.2950 could be bought with stops just below 1.29.

As always, thank you for taking the time to read my post.

Tuesday, 4 December 2012

Blog inactivity for a few days....

Dear followers and visitors,

I would like to inform you that for the next few days my blog will not have new posts because I became a father today. Thanks for your support and I promise my comeback will be connected with a wind of change for my blog visitors and followers.

thank you for your support,


Monday, 3 December 2012

GOLD longer term bullish trend still intact

Many blog followers have asked me to post my view on Gold so  here it goes. We have been bullish on Gold since 1525-50 level and were expecting a  new bullish upward wave to unfold. My belief is that gold is now at a corrective pattern that could complete near the 61,8% retracement or 1640$. Lets take things from the beginning. Gold has started its final 5th wave up were we note that wave E of the huge sideways triangle has ended.  From that time prices have moved impulsively upwards towards 1800 were resistance was too strong for prices to overcome. Our count is that this wave was wave 1 of 5. We believe that wave 2 is under way with an initial dip at 1672(50% retracement). Prices have bounced upwards but with no clear impulsive pattern. 1705$ is important support level as prices have moved upwards from that bottom in a 3 wave pattern. If 1705 is breached, then we would confirm that this upward move is corrective and with final target 1640 were wave 2 could finally end.Overall longer term trend remains intact with targets much higher than 2200$/per ounce. Short term trend remains bullish as long as prices trade above 1705 and as long as resistance at 1752 is broken and prices unfold impulsively. Currently gold has 1718 short term support that could prove helpful for bulls to re energise. Short term resistance at 1734-44-53$. The form of the rise will be very important as this rise if not impulsive could be wave B of 2.

As always, thank you for taking the time to read my thoughts!!!