Saturday, 31 March 2012

Greek FTASE 20

A follower in twitter wanted some info on my view for FTASE 20 and how deep can the correction go. We must first make the assumption that the Jan-Feb rise was wave 1 and we are now in wave 2. Strictly speaking using elliott waves, wave 2 that we are probably in can go all the way to the start of wave 1 but not further. However it is not what happens normally. Usually wave 2s retrace until 61.8% of wave 1. Sometimes they retrace until 76.8%. Emotionally a wave 2 like the one we are experiencing in FTASE20 makes us feel that the previous (downward) trend is resuming. If the waves we are assuming are correct, then I start openning a position at 61,8% but very lightly. I want to see first 5 waves up of any degree. A break of 76.8% in a  daily close wouldn't help bulls chances.

Another scenario we have to seriously think is that the rise from January to February is only wave A of a correction (trend remains downwards). Then we would most probably be in wave B. Wave B has made three waves until now and is at 61.8% of wave A. There is no rule that wave B can't go lower than the start of wave A(irregular wave B with extreme downward pressure). After that we would expect an upward wave C. 

These two scenarios have 40% chances each imho.

The scenario with the less chances is that the corrective wave started in January and finished in February. So we now resume the downward trend impulsively and we are at the start of a wave 3.

Whatever scenario will prevail, I will open long positions when
  1. I see an upward impulsive wave
  2. when volume increases as prices rise
  3. when previous highs are broken and higher lows are made
I don't want to pick a bottom and try to guess where the end of wave 2 or B is. For a quick trading setup I would only enter light near 61.8% but if I didn't see an upward move after 2 sessions I would close my position and wait for the 3 conditions above to be met.

Friday, 30 March 2012

Dollar weakness....

EURUSD made a back test yesterday as expected and mentioned in the analysis. It holds the 1,3250 area and remains above the upper pitchfork resistance. This should hold and push impulsively higher in order for 1,3450 to be achieved.

GBPUSD chart is as labeled in past analysis on this blog and confirms the bullish trend. Now @ 1,60 even more confirms the impulsive move upwards with targets at least near 1,62. It would be very bold to mention targets of 1,66-1,68 but it is too soon. Higher highs and higher lows confirm the upward trend. I believe it will continue to rise.

  DAX cfds as mentioned yesterday in twitter look like after reaching 61,8% retracement a 3-wave movement has completed and ready to resume the uptrend. 6735 should definately hold for the bullish scenario to have chances. 7150 should break for bullish scenario to increase chances. But this is the most bullish scenario. There are other possible scenarios that involve sideways correction that will take much longer to unfold, but we will have to wait to see price reaction near support and resistances.

Greek stocks continue downward trend but reached 61,8% retracement and bounced a bit at the end. Intraday analysis might justify an upward move due to the fact that five waves down have completed from last high(Intraday).

I won't enter this market unless I see 5 waves up with volume increased.

Thursday, 29 March 2012

Time for correction....S&P-DAX-GALE

 S&P has been rejected at the upward trend line noted yesterday. A pull back towards 1400 was also mentioned at yesterdays analysis and it seems that a bounce is coming now. I believe the consolidation and the sideways movement will continue today and tomorrow with an upward bias. Next week I see new highs.

DAX will probably hold 6900 and retest 7150. A sideways correction with more bias to higher prices is more probable for me. If support is broken then the correction will take more time imho.

 Since the markets are correcting or moving sideways, I tend to pay more attention to selected stocks that  I think will have a better risk/return ratio. GALE used to be a favorite of mine at 1,50 were I entered.At 2,45 I exited and saw it rising up to 3$. Now I believe it might have finished its correction and ready to test the highs. Be very carefull if you decide to trade this stock....very volatile.

Wednesday, 28 March 2012

More sideways movement with upward bias

S&P has found the 1420 resistance and might move sideways for the rest of the week with attempts to break 1420. The trend remains up with 1385 initial support. Being above the mid-pitchfork may be a bullish sign but we might soon see a test of the support at 1400.

EURUSD has broken resistance and will most probably continue towards 1,34-35. Support that could be tested could be 1,33 level and support that should hold for trend to continue higher is 1,3250-1,3130.
A stock that I will have under serious consideration is MAKO Surgical Corp. I like the chart very much and I think over the next semester this stock will do extremely well.  First support at 40$.

 Athens FTASE20 looks like it will move lower. My view to stay on the sidelines because I don't see an impulsive wave up has saved me lots of money. Banks have been the worst performers the last few days. However I still have the view that we are in a corrective wave. It doesn't cost me to stay on the side and trade other markets (MIB, S&P, THLD, DAX) but this market will be always in my target sight as it has lots of potential in my opinion.

Tuesday, 27 March 2012

MIB-AAPL-THLD....did you take a profitable risk?

MIB as mentioned in twitter was one of my trades last week when I saw a bottom in the markets. It could very easily test the highs, but it will first have to break 16800 decisively because it is the 61,8% retracement. Support lies at yesterdays low. 

AAPL continues to follow the uptrend from December. I have a short term take profit stop at the area of 577$ and I think after yesterdays session the share will move towards $610-620 this week. Breaking 550$  could be a start of a larger correction.

 THLD gave a new high yesterday above 8$. Stop now at 6,70$. If today 8.50 is reached again I will try and sell it and get back in lower near 7,50-8$. Safest strategy is to hold with stops raising as share price rises.

Monday, 26 March 2012

Greek stocks still consolidating

 Greek stocks look like they are going nowhere. No volume, just a sideways movement. NBG has made no impulsive move upwards while it holds the support in the area of 2,10-25.  Entering at those levels or when volume rises along with the price are my strategy for this stock. I wouldn't be surprised to see prices below 2 but I wouldn't be thrilled about it.
INLOT as mentioned in a previous post has found resistance at 0,75 area and pulled back. It might back test the blue trend channel it escaped or it might move sideways before moving back up.

PS. I would suggest to everyone that follows my blog, should also follow me through twitter because there are comments and charts there that I may not publish here. More detailed intraday comments are also present there. Thanks for your support and I would be grateful for any comment you make about the blog, the charts or the market.

Is the correction over?

 DAX reacted strongly on Friday after reaching support levels. Today is outside of the short term downward sloping channel and will most probably test it as mentioned in twitter. I favor to see this index higher this week.

EURUSD has important resistance at the 1.33 area and must break it and stay above in order to see 1,34-35.

Friday, 23 March 2012

Correction is over?

 S&P as mentioned yesterday was outside of the upward channel and was correcting. The move is a 3 wave down up to now. This could very well be only wave A. This could also be the whole correction. In order for the correction to have ended, S&P must move above 1408 spot or 1406 future. Via twitter yesterday I said that there was a bottom at 1290 area that could very well be wave C. Now we are 9 points higher. 

EURUSD is moving according to plan as mentioned several days ago. But there is also a bearish scenario that I think has chances to play out and so bulls should be very carefull. As depicted in the chart the head and shoulders pattern might move the pair to 1.28. Important resistance that should break is 1.33

Another thing I mentioned in twitter yesterday was a risk appetite towards MIB. That is what I saw there and I now gain about 100 points in that index.

Thursday, 22 March 2012

Pre market signs that top is in.

In the following chart you can see the S&P june future. The move from the 1340 lows has moved outside the rising channel ans is now at 23%  retracement. Typical correction would reach 50-61,8% retracement. Pre market the futures are declinging having made 3 waves down. European indices have moved also outside of the rising trend channel. As I said yesterday stops should be raised and longs should  not get greedy as the market is near or at the top of the latest move.

The greek market continues to move sideways with low volume. I 'm not very optimistic since I still don't see 5 waves up. An expanding triangle could be forming the last few days as a B wave and a new low wave C could be expected to end the correction.

Wednesday, 21 March 2012

5 waves ending this week...??

 It is time to be more cautious than greedy. I see 5 waves ending soon after we see new highs. The wave degree we are in implies that a larger than normal correction might be near. The impeding correction might be steep but it might also move sideways. We will have time for that when it starts. Closing some long positions now or moving stops higher is preferred. I would not consider short positions yet, but if you feel lucky go ahead. This week I believe we will see new highs in both S&P and DAX.

There is also a chance that the final 5th wave will be extended and so we might be ending the 1st wave of the 5th. Corrections for me is something good. They provide health in the market and a chance to buy lower. So I welcome one. The more time it takes to make a correction, the worse it will be when it comes.

Tuesday, 20 March 2012


 EURUSD I believe it has finished 5 waves upwards from the lows near 1,30. Our first wave scenario posted some days ago still holds as long as 1,2975 holds.
Gold looks like it is consolidating and finding support at the 200 exponential MA. Still moving sideways looking from far away with a short term down trend being stronger for now. Support at 13630-50 will make buyers try to push higher.
INLOT was also mentioned in my weekend update. It has pushed out of the short term downward channel and stays above for the time being. 0,75 next resistance and I see it can be reached soon. 

PS. Together with INLOT, BOC is another favorite in my portfolio from Friday. Those two I see outperforming the next few days. For shorter term trades I could also have EUROB under serious consideration.

Monday, 19 March 2012

Topping indices or another consolidation?

S&P should hold 1390. It is moving still in the same wave from 1340. Either the 1st of the 5th, or the entire 5th is ready to end. However if 1390 holds a subdivision of a 4th wave is happening now and we will probably see higher levels around 1410 for the final thrust.  Favoring longs with stop at 1390 spot. 

The same holds for DAX. The testing of 7100 today is probably a lower degree 4th wave. The move from 6600 is either the 1st of the 5th or the entire 5th wave. 6900 should not be breached for the rise to continue in the short term.

USDJPY looks like it may be finally ending the tremendus rise from 76. It will at least make a correction for the move that started at the area of 80,50. I favor short term short positions with a stop at the area of 83.60.

Sunday, 18 March 2012

Triple witching is over...what now in Greece?

Another week in the greek market with a sideways movement. The medium term view with the inverted head and shoulders pattern still has good possibilities to come true. The general index has to overcome the green neckline and the absense of an impulsive wave still makes me wait on the sidelines and ready to get in this market. Better safe than sorry. The General index still resides above the 61.8% area. I hope it is gathering power for a move higher.

One of the major barometer of the greek stock market is National Bank of Greece. Here too we can see the sideways movement of the last week and no clear upward impulsive wave. There is another scenario (aqua coloured) that is seeing significant lower prices. Again volume remains low relative to the Jan-Feb rise and that adds to the scenario that supports we are in a correction to that move and that we have another up leg as the one in the first two months of the year. Again here I stay on the sidelines ready to enter as soon as I see an impulsive wave up. The fact that NBG stays above 50% retracement from January lows, may support the aqua scenario and give a lower low towards the 61.8% retracement near 2€. The yellow scenario to hold we must see this stock rising this week above 2.71€.

A stock that caught my eye was INLOT. Pitchfork support has made the stock bounce on Friday. It has popped out of the short term downward sloping channel and for the stock to continue towards the mid-pitchfork resistance at 0.7350 it must not reenter the downward sloping channel. Next resistance area is 0.91. If that area is broken upwards with increased volume we may see INLOT perform like the banking sector at the first two months of the year. 

PS. International indices analysis will be posted on Monday. Please support the blog by becoming followers and participating by commenting. Thanks for your support.

Friday, 16 March 2012

Stocks to watch. Outperformers!!!

 These two stocks came under my radar some time ago and I was amazed by their performance. KOG can give a pull back towards 8 where I believe it is a buy. I prefer KOG to be placed in my longer term targeted trades. It may move sideways for sometime but above $11 I see it exploding.

THLD is my preference for short term results. This implies higher risk. I believe it is has just started rising and will continue this uptrend through April.  Breaking 4.30$ will not be a good sigh for longs. Otherwise it will move much higher.

Thursday, 15 March 2012

EURUSD, DAX, GOLD and the mighty AAPL

EURUSD is at a critical juncture. It is very close at breaking an important low (1,2975). Trend remains down although this might still be a wave ii as depicted on the chart. For the bullish scenario to increase its chances of survival euro must hold the low and break 1,3125 and 1,32 decisively.

Dax continues to move according to plan. 6840 is the first support that should not break if the rise is to continue now. 6600 should not break for the 5th wave to have more upside potential.

Gold moving sideways for some time now. The green lines represent my important points of resistance and support that if broken prices will trend. In the meantime stop for short positions is
closer, thus I favor a move towards 1550.

AAPL is something extraordinary. It reminds me last years silver move. Although I don't believe it will have the same ending.  516$ low is important for the long term and 547$ for the short term. Sky is the limit for this stock. 

PS. I don't want to be there when it reverses. But I want to continue riding this train!!!

Wednesday, 14 March 2012

Strong S&P and DAX, consolidating Greek shares.

S&P made new highs yesterday. The bullish scenario overcame all negative possibilities. It is important that this index will stay above the mid-pitchfork (1370). 4th wave low at the area of 1340 is also very important for Medium term trend to continue to be up. This rise from 1340 might be the entire 5th wave or even better the 1st wave of the 5th. Targets for the end of the 5th wave start to appear from 1410 to 1560.  Wave relationships offer a variety of targets. Wave 3 is 161,8%  of wave 1. The next few days will shows us if we will see an expanded 5th or it will soon be over. Stops on longs I would favor 1340. Exiting longs at these levels would also be wise in my opinion.

 DAX moves towards our 1st potential of 7100. The upward channel is at 7200 and rising. The same stands for DAX as for S&P. The 5th wave might be over or we might see an extension.  6600 is very important as 1340 in S&P. Longs should put a stop there or exit now (7070). since all parameters are met for a 5th wave to have ended.

Greek banking index still looks like it is in correction. There is no evidence of a clear 5 wave upward movement. Prices are stalling near 50%  and 61,8% retracement. I prefer waiting for something impulsive than bottom picking. It may first see lower levels from recent lows before moving towards February highs. For more info and detailed analysis don't hesitate to contact me. Any comment is welcomed.

Monday, 12 March 2012

Europe set to move higher.S&P????

Looking at DAX I see that a 4th wave has ended with a 5th wave potential around 7100. This is my first choice and most probable scenario. The next most probable scenario is similar to the s&p scenario mentioned last week. If the second scenario is running, then DAX should soon break 6600 towards 6400.

S&P touched the mid-pitchfork resistance and tests bearish scenario possibilities. Breaking 1363 spot should be the initial sign that wave C has started towards 1320. But is it possible that DAX goes to new highs and S&P not? The answer is yes but in our strategy we prefer entering short positions in s&p only when certain levels break and keeping long positions in DAX with stops close by.

Saturday, 10 March 2012

Greece on the spotlight

 Debt restructuring in Greece is at its final stage. ISDA last night confirmed the credit event. Participation in PSI reached 85% and including CACs will rise to 95%. Many people believed that the Greek stock exchange would rally yesterday but as I mentioned in my Twitter, we should have been more cautious. This does not rule out my view of a rising Greek stock exchange over the next 3-5 months.

I posted on twitter a few days ago a similar chart regarding the General Index. An inverse head and shoulders pattern might be forming and  a clear break of the 850 level could push the market much higher. This is  my most probable scenario regarding Greek stocks.

My main focus here is the Greek banking sector in which I see a near 100% return. Stocks like Alpha Bank, National Bank of Greece, Eurobank and Bank of Cyprus, are in my list to see much higher levels. In the chart on your left you can see the banking index moving in a similar way to the General Index. Volume during the Jan-Feb rise has increased dramatically. The rise looks impulsive (5 waves up). The sideways movement reached 61.8% retracement in a corrective form. So this is most probably  a wave 2 or at least a B. So what now??? My guess is that we can expect a wave 3(the best case scenario) or at least a C wave up. There are also other options but I don't give them many chances. In the short term things are much more complicated. I favor wave 2 or B has ended but things are not that clear until we see 5 clear waves up. It is important to hold recent lows for the market to advance from these levels. Time will show us the markets intentions. For more info on greek stocks don't hesitate to contact me through this blog or via twitter. Any comment about the analysis or the blog are welcomed.

Friday, 9 March 2012

S&P will come back down

 As anticipated by yesterdays report, S&P topped around 1365. I see this as important resistance. My most probable scenario is that we made wave B up or have a little more up. Another down move is expected. This count is invalidated above 1380. S&P was rejected at the middle pitchfork. The next most possible scenario is that a smaller degree wave 4 has ended and we move impulsively to new highs.

EURUSD still holds the bullish scenario. 1.31 is important support that should hold. Otherwise we will have to rethink our count and possible senarios.