Tuesday, 28 February 2012

New week.....new highs....

 SPX continues to move higher although it had many chances to make deeper corrections than it did. This happens imho because european debt crisis makes investors even more hesitant to enter at these levels. 1350 major support that enables us to see tagets at the area of 1400.

EURUSD after having achieved our first target of 1.34, moves now towards 1.35 our second target which is an even bigger resistance.

Greek banking sector has corrected 50% and may have finished the correction or will soon will have. Another big upmove is anticipated at least as a C wave. Long positions should be considered in this support area.

Friday, 24 February 2012

Is there still room for the rise to continue?

 EURUSD holds short term support of 1.32 and moves towards our first target of 1,34. Next resistance target 1,35. Trend remains up both short and medium term.

SPX continues to rise with small corrections during this upward movement. 1355 spot should hold at a daily close basis for short term up trend to remain. The new high as expected are very near and I really want to take profits because this rise looks more fragile the more it continues. So buy the pullbacks with close stops in case this market makes a larger correction towards 1300.

Monday, 20 February 2012

As long as most people are afraid to enter the market.....

.....the market will continue to rise, despite the divergencies, despite the overbought indicators, despite the fear regarding the european debt crisis. The truth is in the market so just follow it. Trend is your friend and never go against it. EURUSD after a weeks comeback below 1,30 is looking ready to reach the upper yellow pitchfork resistance after backtesting the middlepitchfork.

ES_f still inside the upward trend channel giving  profits to anyone who buys the pullbacks. Sometime this will end abruptly and thats why you should use stop orders. The most valuable order I place is the stop order. Many times I regret having place one due to wrong choice of stop point. Better safe than sorry...so follow trend with stops around 1340.


As mentioned before, our favorite bank in Greece is back on track after breaking the triple top formation. ALPHA bank looks that has ended the corrective move and starts a new impulsive upwave. Alpha bank got close to our target to enter long and now we have a stop order near 1.35. Now ALPHA BANK @1,94 looks ready to conquer the 2 euro resistance.

Another favorite presented only to my clients was EUROBANK EFG. Greek banks have turned the trend the last few weeks and they look able to give great profits.  European Union support, Greek Parliament austerity measures, look favorable for the time being for the banks. At a time noone wanted to touch greek stocks, now they are rallying almost every day. Still everyone is afraid to risk money in greek stocks due to an impeding default. Of course there are risks and the road ahead for the greek economy is rough, nevertheless I believe the stock market is looking much further than we are. The market reflects the economic state in greece after 6 months and psychology always plays the major role in determining prices. So why not follow a market that is greatly undervalued at a major turning point that could mark prices for the next 20 years.

Saturday, 11 February 2012


S&P has finally started showing some early signs of significant weakness after a long time and a rally of 55 points since the last imporant correction. 1300 area is very important. We need to know if S&P is correcting the move from 1300 or the entire move from the october lows. Either way a top has probably formed near 1360 which is also Prechters stop. European debt crisis will surely affect US markets but Mondays session will provide much more usefull info regarding what to expect. Shorts are favoured with a stop at recent highs. Bulls could enter at 61.8% retracement around 1320 with the lows as a stop.

 EURUSD looks like its taking a break. Consolidating between 1.3025 and 1.33 might still have power to see 1.3450-1.37. Friday was a day with high volatility for this pair and a day to test both resistances and supports.

 Taking a closer look in the EURUSD we see it will test on Monday the support line. It is positioned now at the 61.8% retracement of the move from 1.3025 area to 1.3320 recent highs. This coincides with the support line drawn. If broken then we could visit 1.2950 first and maybe 1.2870. The form of the decline will provide usefull info regarding to what we should expect.

One of our favorite picks from the Athens Stock exchange, ALPHA BANK, still moves correctively. If the move from the lows is impulsive then the correction is either finished or has to give a new low near 1.25. If the up move is just wave A then we could take advantage of wave C up too. 

Potential targets will depend on wether we are in an impulsive wave or not. Volume can clearly be seen as rising during the upward move. If things regarding Greek debt go positively for greek banks then I believe we could see 100% performance in this stock during the first half of the year. For more stocks like this one and more info on how to trade in Greek stocks please contact me. And don't forget to follow on Twitter @alexanderYf

Wednesday, 8 February 2012

E-mini S&P short term technicals.

The rise from the 1300 continues to test the upward sloping trend line. 1340 and 1330 are important supports. I count 9 higher highs so this move might be over. 1316 is 61.8% retracement. For the market to continue higher even after a correction then it must hold this support. I believe the correction is closer than ever.....But I do not enter short trades yet......

EURO suddenly is back to being a favorite....

EURO amidst fears for the european debt crisis has managed to rise from the triple bottom at 1.2650 area and is poised to move towards the upper pitchfork resistance at 1.34-1.35 area. 1.3025 and 1.32 are important supports that should hold. The break of 1.3225 yesterday gives a target of at least 1.3350 before buyers are tested.

Thursday, 2 February 2012

Greek stocks analysis. Focus ALPHA BANK

 ALPHA BANK is one of the top performers the last few weeks. From 0.42 euros to 1.80 euro in 3 weeks. The tremendous increase in volume, the break of all resistances and the extreme levels of pessimism for greek stocks make a powerful mix to push the price higher. From a technical point of view there is a change in trend for this stock. Buying at this levels is extremely risky, although I have a target around 3 euros in 4 months time.

Proposed strategy: Buying the dips from levels of around 1 euro. If the stock has made a short term top at 1.83 then I will wait to buy around 1.25 down to 0.90. The form of the decline (if there is one) will give us the possible retracement. There is also great possibility that the initial upward move is not finished. Updates regarding buying levels, stops and targets will be posted on twitter....so follow me @alexanderYf .

Wednesday, 1 February 2012

Greek shares have bottomed....or this is a trap?

Greek shares are at their lowest levels for almost the last 20 years. The last few weeks were very interesting. The prices are pressured, pessimism about greek economy is at its peak....everyone expects greece to default and influence negatively the rest of europe and then the US. Debt crisis as most commonly known....

So why Greek shares rally? Oversold and nobody wanted them two weeks ago. Is this a trend changing point or just a fake rally before the final plunge? If this is a trend changing point, assuming that prices are pricing in good news to come in the future regarding the debt crisis, then this is a great opportunity to buy undervalued stocks. But there is always a but.....this might be the last upward correction for the final 5th wave down for greek stocks....either way opportunities to make profit are here. Greek stocks are alive once again and promise great volatility ahead. For more info about Greek stocks contact me.