Our target from the start of the week was 1225-1250. I did not expect it to be reached so soon and in that way. Whoever did not expect the pullback and bought on monday can now liquidate and be very happy. I looked at the tree and lost the forest. Better luck next time....or will we have a second chance to buy?or is it over? Will update soon!!!!
Wednesday, 30 November 2011
MIB is at a critical juncture. Either a new impulsive 3rd wave is in its making or a pair of one-twos' is about to end. It came close to overlapping the whole 5-wave upward movement from 13100, but it didn't. These are the most probable scenarios for me and the most simple ones. I like to keep it simple....so lets wait and see....
SPX goes according to our scenario. I see 1170 as the lowest number it can go as a correction. I prefer buying with targets around 1225-1250.
DAX as noted earlier also in my twitter, it probably finished 5 waves up and is correcting. Same pattern as spx. The gap is a possible target. Market opens down, it may pull back up and continue down tonight or tomorrow. Main idea is to be long close to the 61,8% retracement.
Eurusd still below the red trend line. As note on twitter the rise from 1,32 was overlapping and thus not impulsive. I see eurusd lower but not sure if 1,32 will break. It reminds me of how it behaved with 1,3422 area last week. Be carefull with short positions. Using stop orders is best to be safe.
Monday, 28 November 2011
I believe we saw a short term bottom on friday and that an upward movement has already started. I expect all markets tomorrow pull back and provide us with cheaper prices to buy. I have SP500 target between 1225-1250. My scenario will get more possibilities if 1200 is broken and maintained. More detailed work to come soon on this new scenario!
SPX has found resistance at its previous support 1200. Either way a pull back around 1180-1170 is expected. The decline from october highs still looks a 3-wave correction that ended near 61,8%. Long positions after a correction are favored.
DAX is like SPX. A 3-wave decline from the hghs is not impulsive. Yellow line is low of wave 1 that must not be overlapped if we are in wave 3 down. If overlapped then more scenarios will arise. Dominant scenario still is the A-B-C correction to near 61,8%.
In a few words, for the short term I prefer buying the pullback with a view higher.
DAX is poised for a good reaction upwards.
SP500 broke short term down channel and is working on a reaction. Our target of 1150 has been fulfilled. Maybe 1150 is medium term bottom and we could see a good upward move. More to come over the next few days.
MIB holds 13100 and reacts like all the other markets. Long positions should be carefull and with strict stop 13100.
All markets look like they have bottomed at least for short term. Trend changes to up. Next day or two will show us more info regarding the dynamic of this new trend.
Friday, 25 November 2011
Italian MIB fights the zone 14000 and tries not to get far away from it.....further down movement is bad for the correction scenario and good for the new impulsive move scenario as shown in the chart. If 13090 broken, the correction scenario is invalidated because all 5 waves will be fully retraced.
Thursday, 24 November 2011
Good morning all,
todays thanksgiving holiday in the US may give the opportunity to european markets to take a break from the steep decline of the last days.
Dax has found support in the 61,8 % retracement and 5450 must hold for bulls to have a chance of a longer lasting upward move.
EURUSD still stays under the red line mentioned a few days before supporting our bearish view. Lower lows and lower highs maintain downtrend.
MIB closed yesterday below 14000. Weakness is all over this index like it was last year in Greek FTSE index. This index is a major favorite for short positions. If 14000 is not gained quickly and the index stays below it for some time then things are going to get very ugly in Italy.
Overall, today due to US holiday we may see an upward corrective movement in europe and in eurusd. If not, things are going to get ugly in Friday. Remember our SP500 target of 1150!!!!!
Wednesday, 23 November 2011
Tuesday, 22 November 2011
61,8% or 5500 DAX is support, 2800 support for CAC (2690 last stand).
Eurusd inability to break 1,3422 may prove supporting for european indices.
eurusd has found great resistance at the red line...I believe this line is of great importance. Bulls should be extra careful now. 1,3422 is great reverse point imho.
Monday, 21 November 2011
Italian MIB support 14750....although it already looks like 14600 is coming soon. 61,8% retracement important if this down move is just a correction.
Good morning to all.....the week starts with a weak euro...As we noted on friday the correction is probably over and the resumption of the downtrend is here.Confirmation under 1,3422.
1,3622 very important and 1,3540 too.
S&P futures trade under 1215 wich support our view from last week for a 'crash' with 1150 target.
Friday, 18 November 2011
Patience is a virtue
1,3420 is a reverse point but early signs of weakness will be the loss of the 1,3466 short term low.
Thursday, 17 November 2011
dax is vulnerable due to euro weakness and 5850 major support is what we are interested in today. Due to the break of 1140 of spx, I believe dax sooner or later will break this support.