Euro after reaching our target of 1.3150-1.32 has declined impulsively. Still inside the big downward sloping channel, has touched the upper trend line and plunged more than 160 pips. It now retraces that fall and finds support at the green line. Breaking it will resume the decline and most probably reach targets as 1.28.
SPX is running out of time and space and I believe will soon show us the direction it will take. I believe there are more chances topping around 1250 and then following the red path down. I hope I'm wrong but the blue scenario is expected by most people I read in the internet, combined with the Holiday rally.....so I have to be a contrarian. Either way a safe way to play it during holidays is to buy out of the money puts. Today as mentioned in Twitter I expected to see 1230 so that was a good short trade. Having first achieved the 1250 (before market open futures rallied) I saw a pull back to 1230. Now 1250-55 is a target to be revisited in the next two days, unless there is a sudden downgrade of France, or another big euro country.
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